Why 2019-nCoV needs aggressive response
New pathogens have the propensity to cause panic and instill fear among the general public. Much of the confusion that percolates through the public in the initial aftermath of a newly emerged pathogen stems from not knowing what to expect. To help cut through the chaos, scientists that study diseases use a set of questions to help them evaluate and predict the impact of a pathogen.
The first question asks, “What is the overall role of a pathogen’s ability to cause damage in its host and how does it affect our ability to contain its large-scale spread?” For example, efficient human-to-human transmission can lead to large-scale spread, as was the case for SARS. However, SARS also caused severe symptoms in infected individuals, which enabled them to be quickly identified and subsequently isolated. This led to the swift containment of the outbreak. So it does not always follow that pathogens that make you very sick will spread far and wide.
Subsequent questions include: What proportion of infected people develop a disease? And what proportion of those seek health care? The authors explain in their paper, “If infection does not cause serious disease, infected people probably will not end up in health care centers. Instead, they will go to work and travel, thereby potentially spreading the virus to their contacts, possibly even internationally.” Answering these question helps scientists create a realistic assessment of a pathogen’s ability to cause harm and develop a suitable outbreak response.
Emerging coronaviruses like the 2019-nCoV warrant an additional question, “How widespread is the virus in its reservoir?” Disease experts around the world are in the midst of the race to identify the reservoir for the 2019-nCoV. The answer to that question currently stands at, “We don’t know”. This knowledge gap, combined with an inability to detect asymptomatic individuals at traveler screenings, and the potentially mild symptoms of infected patients, could hinder efforts to swiftly identify and isolate infectious individuals – steps necessary in containing an outbreak.
The authors encourage the global community to be proactive about the containment of 2019-nCoV, and recommend heightened preparedness at peripheral healthcare facilities, including at animal markets and other animal facilities, while the possible source of this emerging virus is being investigated.
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